Menacon Saudi Spending Index

How fast the Saudi state is awarding money

Winning bid value of Etimad tenders, by month of publication, updated monthly.

Data through 28 August 2026

Latest month, estimated · July 2026

SAR 6.4bn

−40% vs July 2025

Year to date · Jan–Jul 2026

SAR 45.5bn

−13% a month vs Jul–Dec 2025

Click another month in the strip to move
Confirmed Menacon estimate Awards landed Awards expected

Awards land over many months, so the last 11 months are incomplete: pale bars and the dashed line are Menacon estimates of where they end up. The last fully settled month, August 2025, closed at SAR 5.2bn. Source: Etimad, Menacon analysis.

Saudi Spending Index — monthly awarded value and tender count
Month published Confirmed value (SAR bn) Estimated final value (SAR bn) Tenders awarded so far Estimated final award count Status
Jul 2025 10.68 3,553 Complete
Aug 2025 5.24 1,659 Complete
Sep 2025 6.44 8.24 2,774 2,947 Provisional
Oct 2025 3.26 7.74 2,732 2,940 Provisional
Nov 2025 3.17 6.71 2,048 2,249 Provisional
Dec 2025 2.40 6.22 1,562 1,855 Provisional
Jan 2026 1.68 5.45 1,686 2,002 Provisional
Feb 2026 1.11 5.11 1,806 2,273 Provisional
Mar 2026 1.12 6.17 1,453 1,989 Provisional
Apr 2026 2.41 8.89 1,836 2,559 Provisional
May 2026 0.67 6.45 915 1,571 Provisional
Jun 2026 0.18 7.02 779 1,588 Provisional
Jul 2026 0.02 6.42 373 1,597 Provisional

How it is calculated

Method, and what it cannot yet tell you

What the series counts

Every tender published on Etimad is grouped by the month it was published, not the month it was awarded. The value shown is the winning bid of those that have since been awarded. Grouping by publication is what makes this a read on commissioning tempo rather than on paperwork throughput.

Why recent months are incomplete

A tender is awarded months after it is published, so the newest months are always understated and revise upward. About 62% of published tenders are eventually awarded, and the large ones settle last — a month takes far longer to reach its final value than the three to six months the sector assumes. That is why the headline above is an estimate rather than a count.

How much later depends on how the work was bought. Two months after publication, direct purchases have about 41% of their eventual value confirmed and open competitions have 2%. Reading a recent month by what has landed in it therefore describes the order the paperwork arrives in, not the market.

How the estimate is built

Each month is anchored on the tenders it published — a count that is known the moment the month ends and never revises. The estimate is what has been confirmed so far, plus what those published tenders are still expected to be worth. It is the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method from insurance reserving: it leans on how big the month was while the month is young, and converges on the observed figure as awards land. It never divides by the completion share, which is what stops a single early award in a fresh month implying a record-breaking total.

A published tender is not priced at the market average. It is priced by the agency that published it and the route it was bought through, from what that agency's tenders have historically been worth once settled. Most agencies publish too little for their own history to be trusted, so each one is weighted against the market average in proportion to how much evidence it has — the credibility weighting used in insurance pricing. Each route is then developed on its own curve, and the month is the sum of its parts.

Why the split is estimated too

Selecting a column decomposes it by route and by sector. Those shares are estimated on the same basis as the bar, not counted from what has settled — a counted split would report every recent month as mostly direct purchase, which is true of the tenders and false of the money. Direct purchase is roughly 65% of tenders published and 1–2% of value awarded.

Sectors come from Etimad's own activity classification, one per tender. The six largest by estimated value are named and the remainder is pooled, so the parts always sum to the month above them.

What the two comparisons rest on

The record begins in July 2025, so only July has a counterpart twelve months earlier — that single month is the year-over-year reading beside the latest month, and it sets an estimate against a settled figure.

The year-to-date figure is the sum of the estimates for the months of the current year so far. It has no like-for-like counterpart yet: 2025 is on record only from July, so setting seven months of 2026 against six of 2025 would report a difference in window length as a fall in spending. Until the series covers the same months in both years, the comparison divides each side by its own length and compares monthly pace — which is why it is labelled "a month". Procurement is seasonal, so that is a weaker reading than a like-for-like one, and it upgrades on its own once the history reaches back far enough.

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